The baseline for our client retention program: how much churn we have, who leaves, when they leave, what we can see before they go, and who is at risk right now. Every client is checked against Bill.com invoices and Mission Control.
Each bar is the share of clients we lost over the 12 months before that date, against the average number of active clients over the same stretch. A year ago it was 15%. It peaked at 33% at the end of September and sits at 27% today, only because last fall's losses have just rolled out of the 12-month window.
The losses have also changed shape. Through mid-2025 they were mostly iTrip franchisees. Since July 2025, 17 of 26 clients we lost were independents.
| Left in | Clients lost | Independents | iTrip | Inside first year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Jul to Dec | 6 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 2025 Jan to Jun | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 2025 Jul to Dec | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026 Jan to Jun | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| 2026 Jul to Dec (so far) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
One program will not fix all three. Split by client type, the timing is completely different. Casago is the exception so far: none of its 8 clients have left, but five signed this year, so most haven't reached the stretch where clients leave.
Independents signed since January 2025: 47 clients, 9 lost. 8 of the 9 left inside nine months: Triad (1.8 mo), Serendipity (2.9 mo), Benichay Brothers (3.3 mo), Saltwater Grande Vacations (4.5 mo), Calibrate Estates (5.3 mo), Legacy Beach Homes (6.9 mo), Timbers Resorts (7.4 mo), Bear Branch Cabins (8.2 mo). About one in eight doesn't reach six months (12.3%), and this is the group we sign the most of.
47 iTrip clients, 17 lost. Almost none leave in the first six months, and once a franchisee passes two years only one has left. Four of these shrank hard before leaving, as units came out of the program.
All 9 left after month six, 8 after month twelve, and four after two years: Greenchair, Home Base, Arrival Getaways and Shores. Long tenure has not protected these accounts.
How the risk moves with tenure. Each cell is the share of clients who reached that stage and then left during it. Highlighted cells are 10% or more.
| Tenure | New independents (2025+) | iTrip | Independents before 2025 | All clients |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Months 0 to 3 | 4%2 of 47 | 2%1 of 47 | 0%0 of 15 | 3%3 of 117 |
| Months 3 to 6 | 8%3 of 40 | 2%1 of 46 | 0%0 of 15 | 4%4 of 109 |
| Months 6 to 12 | 11%3 of 27 | 13%6 of 45 | 7%1 of 15 | 11%10 of 92 |
| Months 12 to 24 | 8%1 of 13 | 21%8 of 38 | 29%4 of 14 | 19%13 of 68 |
| Beyond 24 months | none yet | 4%1 of 25 | 40%4 of 10 | 14%5 of 36 |
The one signal that shows up in billing is shrinkage. Among per-unit clients, 7 of 29 who left were billing at least 25% below their usual month right before they went. Among the 56 per-unit clients still with us, only 4 look like that today. That makes a shrinking invoice about three times more common before a loss. It's worth watching, but 22 of 29 losses showed no drop at all.
| Shrank before leaving | Usual month | Last month before exit | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| iTrip Pompano Beach | $200 | $80 | -60% |
| iTrip Pagosa Springs | $2,460 | $1,380 | -44% |
| iTrip - Chattanooga | $1,920 | $1,200 | -38% |
| Greenchair | $780 | $500 | -36% |
| iTrip Marietta | $920 | $600 | -35% |
| Ascent Cohosting | $1,400 | $950 | -32% |
| Stay NH | $750 | $550 | -27% |
Already on notice: Host-Me ($2,160 a month, 5 months in) leaves November 6. That's a fourth new independent lost inside six months this year.
Pattern 1 watch list: 17 active clients are inside their first six months, and 12 of them are already past day 100. Another 14 are between six and twelve months.
| Client | Days in | Day 100 | Monthly | Health | RM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinifera HomesIndependent, 27 units | 0 | Feb 6 | not billing yet | no score | Jack Sarzuelo (MC) |
| Sarana StaysIndependent | 6 | Jan 31 | not billing yet | 5.5 | Alisa Karolin (MC) |
| Atlanta Luxury RentalsIndependent, 63 units | 30 | Jan 8 | $942 | 5.6 | Brandon Zienowicz |
| Property Hub VenturesIndependent, 7 units | 49 | Dec 20 | $440 | 8.6 | Connor Ramalho (MC) |
| Sunny Orange StaysIndependent, 61 units | 79 | Nov 20 | $1,830 | 6.5 | Connor Ramalho (MC) |
| Seabrook WAIndependent, 321 units | 110 | Oct 18 | $9,540 | 7.7 | Emily Poplin,Wade Andrews |
| Casago - Northern ColoradoCasago, 102 units | 119 | Oct 9 | $1,074 | 6.3 | Connor Ramalho (MC) |
| Beaux MaisonIndependent, 29 units | 128 | Oct 1 | $1,710 | 8.2 | Wade Andrews (MC) |
| Casago Select StaysCasago, 192 units | 128 | Sep 30 | $2,064 | no score | Brandon Zienowicz (MC) |
| Casago - AustinCasago, 120 units | 155 | Sep 3 | $2,829 | 3.8 | Connor Romalho |
| Dear ValentineIndependent, 24 units | 161 | Aug 29 | $845 | 8.1 | Lea Wey (MC) |
| Positive StaysIndependent, 8 units | 161 | Aug 28 | $825 | 5.9 | Wade Andrews (MC) |
| Beacon DestinationsIndependent, 19 units | 167 | Aug 23 | $1,170 | 7.2 | Kyle Polensky |
| Hello HoltIndependent, 149 units | 167 | Aug 23 | $4,517 | 7.1 | Wade Andrews |
| Vacay Your WayIndependent, 7 units | 167 | Aug 23 | $495 | 8.4 | Wade Andrews (MC) |
| Wanderlust StaysIndependent, 7 units | 167 | Aug 22 | $384 | 5.5 | Alisa Karolin (MC) |
| Salt Line Vacation RentalsIndependent, 19 units | 173 | Aug 15 | $880 | 6.9 | Brandon Zienowicz |
Shrinking now: per-unit clients billing at least 25% below their usual month.
| Client | With us | Usual month | Latest | Change | Health | RM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airinn | 21 mo | $2,350 | $1,350 | -43% | 8.1 | Alisa Karolin |
| Virtual Homes Realty | 14 mo | $1,398 | $855 | -39% | 7.7 | Lea Wey (MC) |
| iTrip Boston_South Shore | 30 mo | $640 | $400 | -38% | 4.3 | Jack Sarzuelo (MC) |
| Elevate BNB Management | 21 mo | $2,740 | $1,769 | -35% | 8.3 | Alisa Karolin (MC) |
Low health scores: below 5 out of 10. The score is Mission Control's weekly client health brief: 40% relationship sentiment from recent meeting transcripts, 35% forward pace versus last year, 25% trailing RevPAR versus last year. Most of these are tenured iTrip franchisees, which is Pattern 2's risk zone.
| Client | With us | Health | RM |
|---|---|---|---|
| iTrip Central Arkansas | 32 mo | 3.3 | Emily Poplin |
| iTrip Navarre | 34 mo | 3.3 | Jack Sarzuelo |
| iTrip Hilton Head Islands (HHI) | 31 mo | 3.5 | Emily Poplin (MC) |
| iTrip Temecula | 32 mo | 3.5 | Emily Poplin |
| Casago - Austin | 5 mo | 3.8 | Connor Romalho |
| iTrip Coeur d'Alene | 29 mo | 4.1 | Emily Poplin |
| iTrip San Antonio | 26 mo | 4.1 | Emily Poplin |
| Casago Heber City | 29 mo | 4.3 | Alisa Karolin |
| iTrip Boston_South Shore | 30 mo | 4.3 | Jack Sarzuelo (MC) |
| Norlake, LLC | 13 mo | 4.5 | Alisa Karolin |
| iTrip Golden Isles | 21 mo | 4.9 | Emily Poplin |
| Field | Where it stands today |
|---|---|
| Why they left, bucketed | Recorded for 0 of 35 lost clients. This is the gap that matters most: every pattern above says when and who, none of it says why. Each departure needs a type (unwanted, wanted, or not really churn), a reason category, and a yes or no on whether we could have prevented it. That turns 35 anecdotes into a count of preventable losses by cause. |
| Notice date | Known for 3 of 35. Notice date is when the client decided, and it's the date that tells us how far ahead of day 100 we need to be. |
| Save attempt and outcome | Not tracked anywhere, so we can't tell which saves work. |
| Stage and end date in Attio | Mission Control takes both from Attio automatically. Today Attio still lists iTrip Marietta as an active client nearly four months after its last invoice. |
Churn is 27% a year, up from 15%, and the growth is in independents. They break three ways: new independents in the first six months, iTrip franchisees between months 6 and 24, and older independents after a year or more. Start with the first, since that's the group we keep signing, record a reason on every loss, and use the watch list above for the next 30 days.